Black Swans

Sometimes there are events in history that are game changers. December 17, 2011 was one of these events - Kim Jong-il has died. A former chief US negotiator for North Korean nuclear talks said in an interview "If you asked experts what would be the most likely scenario for North Korea to collapse, the answer everyone would give you is 'if Kim Jong-il died today.' We're in that scenario". Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia group spoke on Bloomberg today and said "This is the worst possible scenario - the one that everyone's been concerned about - a relatively sudden and unexpected transition in one of the most consolidated, totalitarian regimes in the entire world."

Uncertainty has infected the Asian markets at close, with South Korea's Kospi down 3.4%, Japan's Nikkei down 1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.18% and Taiwan down 2.24%. The uncertainty is unavoidable since there are so many questions in the air concerning the big black box we call North Korea.

It is rumoured that Kim Jong-il's 3rd son will be taking over, however he is young and inexperienced, currently estimated to be 28-29 (not even his age is known to the public). Worries revolve around the younger Kim Jong-un asserting his power by accelerating nuclear weapons programs in order to assert his newly claimed control. Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland, so questions remain as to how closely he will follow his father's regime for better or for worse.

Kim Jong-il has wreaked havoc on his own country; The economy measures less than 3% of South Korea's, and has relied on economic handouts since the 1990's. No shy of 2 million people died of famine during Kim Jong-il's 17-year reign. Certain talks were said to be confirmed with respect to food aid, however that's pretty much off the table until some sort of clarity comes out of the settling dust.

With an economy down the tubes, and the death of the dictator, naturally questions start to come to forefront as to whether there will be any protests (maybe unlikely citizens taking to the street - but within the communist party).

It's hard to envision - looking out the window into the distance from my 3rd floor desk in White Rock, how North Koreans in the video posted above could react so emotionally for their "Dear Leader". Without doubt there is propaganda, etc., but still - can you imagine an event like that for Harper? There is a mourning period of TWO WEEKS, as well as mandatory national silence for three minutes (or something like that). At 24.3M people, that would be hard to co-ordinate, but if anyone can do it - leave it to the dictator.

So - the questions persist - how will this Black Swan effect us - will Kim Jong-un stage war/military force to send home the message that he is not a force to be wreckoned with - will there be a protest towards freedom by the people inside the government of North Korea - will Kim Jong-un save the people of his country by moving towards better human rights practices and by co-operating to remove sanctions currently placed on the country?

There's so many what-ifs that I can't really even give you my opinion. The many secrets/unknown are almost synonymous with North Korea - there are so many things we don't know/will ever know about this country. I do know that there is the same kind of twitching fear in my stomach as when I read the news on the sanctioning of Iran. Will any of this miraculously be fixed after so many years of the status-quo? If you ask me, Kim Jong un-likely.